International Journal of Public Opinion Research - recent issues

Editorial

Donsbach, W., Neijens, P., Traugott, M. W. — 2008-05-28

The Struggle for the Freedom to Publish Pre-Election Poll Results: The Case of Poland

Sulek, A. — 2008-05-28

Poland abolished, in 2001, its severe legal restrictions on the publication of pre-election polls that had been existing since 1991. This article presents the history of these restrictions—why they were introduced and then abolished, how they functioned throughout the years, causing disputes, and finally what led to their abolition. The role of sociologists and pollsters in the struggle for the freedom to publish poll results is underlined. A description of the case of Poland reveals the general problems that are related to the introduction of restrictions on publishing opinion poll results in democratic societies and highlights arguments that have led to the abolition of these restrictions. This article may be useful for opinion researchers in various countries where such restrictions still exist or where they are being introduced or exacerbated.

Accuracy of Pre-Election Polls for the 2006 Italian Parliamentary Election: Too Close to Call

Callegaro, M., Gasperoni, G. — 2008-05-28

In this article, we analyze the accuracy of over 70 published and 19 unpublished pre-election polls reporting results pertaining to the April 2006 election for the Chamber of Deputies in Italy and apply a new measure of predictive accuracy, A, recently introduced in the U.S. context. The center-left coalition won the election with a narrow margin of 0.1 percent of the votes, which came as a surprise: all published pre-election polls had attributed a 3 to 4 percentage point lead for the center-left. The failure of virtually all pollsters to predict the outcome is due to various factors: sampling error issues; a 15-day pre-election embargo on publishing results; high coverage error due to households having only mobile phones or no phone at all; a possible reluctance of Italian voters to declare their intention to vote for the center-right. The new measure of poll accuracy was easy to adapt and apply to the Italian context, due to a recent election reform. Information given by pollsters remains, however, too inadequate to engage in comprehensive evaluations of their polls.

Effects of Value Predispositions, Mass Media Use, and Knowledge on Public Attitudes Toward Embryonic Stem Cell Research

Ho, S. S., Brossard, D., Scheufele, D. A. — 2008-05-28

Research on public attitudes toward controversial science seem to be divided between a camp that relies on a ‘scientific literacy model’, which states that increase in public knowledge of science is related to increase in public support, and a camp contending that the ‘miserly’ public will rely on heuristic cues such as value predispositions to form opinions about scientific controversies. In the present study, we argue along the lines of the heuristic–systematic model of information processing that the influences of value predispositions and knowledge on attitude formation can be complementary processes that will supplement cues provided by the media. Using data from a national three-wave panel survey conducted between 2002 and 2005, we examine the influence of value predispositions, news media use, and scientific knowledge on attitudes toward a controversial scientific issue: human embryonic stem cell research in the USA. Public attitudes toward stem cell research were shaped by value predispositions and to a lesser extent, cues from the news media. Scientific knowledge played a minor role in influencing attitude toward stem cell research. Religiosity, ideology, and deference to scientific authority moderated the effect that scientific knowledge had on support for stem cell research, with knowledge having a weaker effect on attitudes for the conservatives, and those individuals high on religious beliefs and low on deference to scientific authority.

Testing the Knowledge Gap Hypothesis in South Korea: Traditional News Media, the Internet, and Political Learning

Kim, S.-H. — 2008-05-28

Analyzing data from a survey of South Korean respondents, this study explores the role of news media in informing the audience about politics. In particular, it is examined whether different forms of news media function to increase the gap in political knowledge between socioeconomic classes. Consistent with findings in the United States, newspaper reading was positively related to political learning. Use of political web sites also indicated a small learning effect. Data supported the knowledge gap hypothesis. There was a considerable gap in political knowledge between highly educated and less-educated respondents. More importantly, the gap was even greater among heavy newspaper readers and among political Web users. These findings indicate that newspapers and the Internet may function to increase the gap between social classes.

What were the Elections about, and Why We Should Ask about it in Election Surveys

Shamir, M., Shamir, J. — 2008-05-28

Militant Nationalist Electoral Support: A Measurement Dilemma

Coakley, J. — 2008-05-28

The Asymmetry in Economic News Coverage and its Impact on Public Perception in South Korea

Ju, Y. — 2008-05-28

The 'Global @Dvisor Survey'(R): A New Tool for the Comparative Study of Elite Opinion

Worcester, R. M. — 2008-05-28

Thomas Listerman (2007). Biotechnology in Press and Public. An International Study of Press Coverage about Biotechnology and its Relationship to Public Opinion.

Peters, H. P. — 2008-05-28

Reply by THOMAS LISTERMAN

2008-05-28

Recent Books in the Field of Public Opinion Research

de Boer, C. — 2008-05-28

Recent Articles in the Field of Public Opinion Research

Mortimore, R. — 2008-05-28

WAPOR News

2008-05-28

Editorial

Traugott, M. W. — 2008-02-23

The Use of Opinion Polls * What Polls Can and Cannot Tell us About Public Opinion: Keynote Speech at the 60th Annual Conference of WAPOR

Lang, K. — 2008-02-23

Comments on the Keynote

Langer, G., Traugott, M. W., Worcester, R. M. — 2008-02-23

Reply to the Comments

Lang, K. — 2008-02-23

The Media and Economic Voting in Israel

Sheafer, T. — 2008-02-23

The premise of the economic voting hypothesis is that citizens vote for the government if the national economy is doing well; otherwise, they vote against it. The causal chain of effects in the economic voting hypothesis starts from the objective economic indicators, moves on to voter perceptions of the economy, and then to the vote. Under the competence hypothesis that is analyzed here, this causal chain is slightly modified, with the objective economy as the first step, voter perceptions of the economic competence of the government as the second step, and then the vote. It is argued that citizens learn about the state of the national economy mainly from the media. Yet, only few studies of economic voting include empirical analyses of the media's role in it. The findings support the competence hypothesis and the important role of the media in it. They underline the valuable contribution of media effects theories, and especially media framing and priming, to our understanding of economic voting.

Pluralistic Ignorance About Sex: The Direct and the Indirect Effects of Media Consumption on College Students' Misperception of Sex-Related Peer Norms

Chia, S. C., Lee, W. — 2008-02-23

The term pluralistic ignorance refers to erroneous beliefs held by a group of individuals about the attitudes or behavior of others. In this study, we examined the degree to which college students in Singapore misconceive their peers’ sexual attitudes and behavior. The data for this study came from a web-based survey involving a random sample of 534 college students in Singapore. The results indicate widespread evidence of pluralistic ignorance; that is, students believed that their peers were significantly more sexually active than was actually the case. The data also suggest that the students formed such erroneous impressions of peers on the basis, in part, of the students’ media consumption and of the students’ own sexual attitudes.

Measuring Public Opinions About Surveys

Loosveldt, G., Storms, V. — 2008-02-23

Respondent's opinions about survey research are regarded as an expression at the individual level of the general survey-taking climate. Based on a review of the research about ‘surveys on surveys’ five relevant dimensions of the respondent's opinion about surveys are distinguished: survey enjoyment, survey value, survey cost, survey reliability, and survey privacy. Items related to these aspects are used to develop an ‘Opinions about Survey Scale’. The results of an analysis of the predictive validity of the scale support the expectations based on the theory of planned behavior. Opinions about surveys are associated with the intention to participate in future surveys and with hesitation to fill out the questionnaire of a mail survey. Opinions are not related with participation in a follow-up mail survey. The results of the wave analysis of a mail survey are a clear indication that nonrespondents have more negative opinions about different aspects of surveys. This also means that the measurement of opinions is biased. However, because of this bias it is worthwhile and useful to measure these opinions.

Political Comedy Shows and Public Participation in Politics

Cao, X., Brewer, P. R. — 2008-02-23

Effects of Interviewer Gender on Survey Responses: Findings from a Household Survey in Mexico

Flores-Macias, F., Lawson, C. — 2008-02-23

W. Phillips Davison (2006). A Personal History of World War II. How a Pacifist Draftee Accidentally Became a Military Government Official in Postwar Germany.

Wilke, J. — 2008-02-23

Recent Books in the Field of Public Opinion Research

de Boer, C. — 2008-02-23

Recent Articles in the Field of Public Opinion Research

Mortimore, R. — 2008-02-23

WAPOR News

2008-02-23

Editorial

Donsbach, W., Traugott, M. W. — 2007-11-22

Domestic Adaptations of Europe: A Comparative Study of the Debates on EU Enlargement and a Common Constitution in the German and French Quality Press

Adam, S. — 2007-11-22

The article investigates why a specific European issue is debated in one country but disregarded in another, and why issues are debated differently in different European countries. To understand this national filtering, expectations are formulated as to how specific policy traditions and issue-specific conflict constellations within a country are reflected in media debates. A systematic content analysis of the debates on EU enlargement and a common constitution for the years 2000–2002 in the German and French quality press reveals considerable variation in issue salience, actors’ prominence and actors’ responsibility attributions between and within the countries. This variation can be seen to be connected with different policy traditions and conflict constellations. The study seeks to go beyond merely describing variations in media coverage across Europe and systematically uses cross-national and cross-issue comparative research to understand this variation.

Terrorism and Africa: A Study of Agenda Building in the United States

Wanta, W., Kalyango, Y. — 2007-11-22

An agenda-building model was examined for the question of Africa and terrorism. A path analysis compared real-world events (deaths and attacks attributed to terrorism), presidential emphasis, media coverage, and foreign aid for 20 African nations. Results show a clear agenda-building trend—when nations were emphasized with a terrorism frame. Presidential emphasis of nations’ involvement in terrorism influenced media coverage and the policy agenda. The findings also suggest that deaths attributed to terrorism influenced the news and policy agendas. Media coverage of nations with a terrorism frame influenced the policy agenda. Only one significant path coefficient was found in the analysis of agenda setting without terrorism framing: The more President Bush mentioned a nation in his public statements, the more The New York Times covered the country.

'Horrors of Holland': Explaining Attitude Change Towards Euthanasia and Homosexuals in The Netherlands, 1970 1998

Jaspers, E., Lubbers, M., de Graaf, N. D. — 2007-11-22

In this article, we investigate changes in public opinion in the Netherlands toward two controversial issues: homosexuals and euthanasia. We find that a rapid decrease in opposition to both issues in the seventies and early eighties was followed by a period of a stable minority opposition. We identify relevant period and cohort indicators to test which characteristics are associated with the changes in the attitudes. We collected period and cohort characteristics that are applicable to both of the attitudes, but specific attitude-related circumstantial conditions as well. For both attitudes, it turns out that the changing composition of Dutch society with regard to religiousness accounts for the largest changes in public opinion. Furthermore, we find that the influence of religion on both the attitude towards euthanasia and the attitude towards homosexuals became stronger over time, whereas the influence of educational attainment weakened over time.

Forum: Causes of Voting for the Radical Right

van der Brug, W., Fennema, M. — 2007-11-22

'What Causes People to Vote for a Radical Right Party?' A Rejoinder to van der Brug and Fennema

Giugni, M., Koopmans, R. — 2007-11-22

Studying Nonresponse in Mexican Exit Polls

Bautista, R., Callegaro, M., Vera, J. A., Abundis, F. — 2007-11-22

Telephone Number Portability and the Prevalence of Cell Phone Numbers in Random Digit-Dialed Telephone Survey Samples

Link, M. W., Town, M., Mokdad, A. H. — 2007-11-22

W. Lance Bennett, Regina G. Lawrence, and Steven Livingston (2007). When the Press Fails. Political Power and the News Media from Iraq to Katrina.

Ruigrok, N. — 2007-11-22

Recent Books in the Field of Public Opinion Research

de Boer, C. — 2007-11-22

Recent Articles in the Field of Public Opinion Research

Mortimore, R. — 2007-11-22

WAPOR News

2007-11-22

Acknowledgement of Reviewers

2007-11-22