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International Journal of Public Opinion Research Advance Access originally published online on March 18, 2005
International Journal of Public Opinion Research 2005 17(4):399-421; doi:10.1093/ijpor/edh078
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International Journal of Public Opinion Research Vol. 17 No. 4 © The Author 2005. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The World Association for Public Opinion Research. All rights reserved.

Pre-Election Polls in Portugal: Accuracy, Bias, and Sources of Error, 1991–2004

Pedro C. Magalhães

Pedro C. Magalhães is a researcher at the Social Sciences Institute of the University of Lisbon. He obtained a Ph.D. in Political Science at the Ohio State University in 2003. He co-directs the Portuguese Election Study and the Portuguese component of the European Election Study, and has worked since 2000 with the Catholic University opinion polls unit.

Address correspondence to Pedro C. Magalhães, Instituto de Ciencias Sociais da Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Prof. Aníbal de Bettencourt, 9, 1600–189, Lisboa, Portugal, E-mail: pedro.magalhaes{at}ics.ul.pt

This article examines the performance of the pre-election polls in Portugal since 1991 and attempts to determine some of the common causes of poll inaccuracy in both National Assembly and European Parliament elections. The analysis of poll results in this period reveals marked improvements in poll accuracy since 1991, which have brought it to levels that, today, are comparable to those found in nations where the practice of both survey research and opinion polling is longer and more established. No evidence of a systematic bias against any of the major parties is found, and sources of error are congruent with those found elsewhere. However, large errors remain the norm in polls pertaining to European Parliament elections, suggesting a shared inability of Portuguese polling organizations in dealing appropriately with the problems caused by low turnout and ‘landslide’ elections.


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