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International Journal of Public Opinion Research Advance Access originally published online on August 2, 2005
International Journal of Public Opinion Research 2006 18(2):174-197; doi:10.1093/ijpor/edh090
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International Journal of Public Opinion Research Vol. 18 No. 2 © The Author 2005. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The World Association for Public Opinion Research. All rights reserved.

Another Look at What Moves Public Opinion: Media Agenda Setting and Polls in the 2000 U.S. Election

Young Jun Son

Young Jun Son (Ph.D. Indiana University-Bloomington, 2003) is an assistant professor at the School of Communication at Kookmin University, South Korea.

David H. Weaver

David Weaver is the Roy W. Howard Professor in Journalism and Mass Communication Research at Indiana University. The authors appreciate the support of the Roy Howard Chair and Kookmin University research grant for this research.

Address correspondence to Young Jun Son, School of Communication, Kookmin University, 861–1, Chongnung-dong, Songbuk-gu, Seoul, 136–702, South Korea, E-mail: yoson{at}kookmin.ac.kr

This study examined two levels of media agenda effects on aggregate public opinion from different news sources. The effects were investigated immediately and cumulatively. Content analysis data from the 2000 U.S. presidential election coverage by four national news organizations were related to the Gallup pre-election poll standings of each candidate. Regression analyses found that both the salience of a candidate and the salience of the attributes of a candidate cumulatively, but not immediately, influenced his standing in the polls. An analysis of news sources supported the finding that the two levels of agenda-setting effects seemed mostly cumulative rather than immediate. News from different sources, however, tended to have effects of different degrees and sometimes different directions on candidate poll standings. Cumulative effects of candidate salience on aggregate opinion change were found for non-partisan and neutral news sources—reporters, poll reporting and public documents—whereas the effects of candidate attribute salience mostly came from partisan sources—the candidate himself and members of the competing political party. Possible political implications of these findings are discussed.


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